Wednesday, 10 March 2004

Lets talk stats

As some of you know already, one of my friends lost both her parents in a car crash this last sunday. This is just a total tragedy in every sense of the word, and I really have no idea what she is going through right now. I can't even imagine it.

Tonight this lead to a discussion about how safe the 401 is because the funeral is going to be held in Toronto and there are some concerns about driving "on the 401 near Toronto at this time of year". When I have these discussions, I think that the people that hear this think that it is certain death if they get in a car near Toronto. I've always gotten the impression from people around Ottawa that the 401 is some mysterious demon highway that only the lucky survive. Having lived for 12 years < 1 km from the 401 practically within the Toronto city limits (like one interchange away) I don't fear it. Probably 'cause my folks have lived there for like ~45 years before we moved, so there is no fear from them.

In the discussion that I got into tonight, I was told that "everyone knows that you are much more likely [as in percentage] to die on the 401 than anywhere else. Everyone knows these statistics". This prompted me to look up these stats since I wasn't part of the everyone group. I wanted to see them for myself. I found a pdf that says the 401 is the 2nd most travelled highway in North America and with the 4th lowest fatality rate. I think that's pretty damn good if you ask me. But it's a big highway and I was told that the "place of death" was right around Toronto. I didn't find (free) stats for that, I wish that I had. I also wish that I can find stats for the 417 to compare because Ottawa people think nothing of driving that road, but avoid the 401. It just doesn't make sense to me.

Getting back to my friend, I believe that the things that contributed to her folks deaths were:
  1. it was a 2 lane road
  2. it was a car vs. a SUV. Cars don't usually win that one just based on mass
  3. the driver (and passenger) were 21 -> which probably means they were inexperienced
  4. (my dad's theory) they lost control by dropping a wheel off the road, over corrected to get it onto the road and ended up in the other lane. This just comes from the 1st and 3rd points though. It's just a guess of what happened.
Really, this all doesn't matter because in the end my friend's folks are gone and nothing will bring them back. We just have to focus on being there for her 'cause these next few years are going to be really hard.

4 comments:

  1. Give her a good strong hug for me.
    Re: driving on the 401...
    As you know, I currently live in Waterloo and my boyfriend lives in downtown Toronto, so I make the trip to stink city at least 3-4 times a month. Honestly, every time I arrive at Cory's, I'm totally stressed out. It's like, not only do I have to pay attention for me, I feel like I have to pay attention for a lot of other drivers as well.
    I do think that these really awful drivers who weave in and out of traffic at 130 kph, catch up on their reading, or can't wait to make that all important cell phone call are in the minority, but it only takes one...
    From personal experience, there's no comparison between the 417 and the 401. The 401 is just so much larger and the people that drive it I think have a different "driving personality"... everyone seems to be more aggressive and in a massive hurry to get wherever it is they're going. I haven't seen that nearly as much driving into downtown Ottawa.
    I wouldn't say I fear for my life everytime I drive to Toronto, but it sure isn't a fun commute. And in bad winter weather, thank goodness for Greyhound...!

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  2. Just as an aside... you may want to be careful about those highway stats. I believe they only include "licensed drivers" and you always have to look at who's collected and analyzed the stats... in this case, the ministry of transportation. I'm not saying they're not accurate, but sometimes they have a way of presenting info so that they're perceived in the best light possible.
    Yeah, I know. I'm cynical.

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  3. To comment on the article that you linked to, I had originally linked to it as well, but have since removed it from my blog. The reason is that the reporter and editor were horrible to Julie when they talked to her. She asked them to not release the names of her parents to the public until the family had dealt with certain things, and they disregarded her requests.
    She even asked to speak to the editor and he had the nerve to tell her that he knew 'exactly how she feels' since he is a father about her dad's age and he has a daughter about her age. Get real.
    As if she needs more grief in dealing with this tragedy.

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  4. I noticed that you removed the link. It's gone here too now.
    As for driving the 417, I agree that people have a different style of driving here, but I have driven downtown Ottawa many times with people going 130 and weaving in and out of traffic. I don't think that driving here is very tiring because you'll only have "traffic" from around Bayshore to downtown, which is like 15 minutes of driving.
    And good advice about stats: everyone knows that 73.4% of statistics are made up on the spot. ;-) People can modify the numbers to show what they want people to see....

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